By NuVine Advisory | June 2025

1. End of 90‑Day Tariff Truce — Brace for Unilateral Tariffs

President Trump has confirmed the 90‑day pause on sweeping global tariffs will expire around July 9, 2025, preferring instead to activate unilateral tariffs via letters (20–50%) rather than negotiate formal agreements  . These measures target a range of countries, including Canada, Europe, and certain developing markets.

🔩 2. Steel & Aluminum Tariffs Double to 50%

As of June 4, 2025, the tariffs on steel and aluminum imports doubled—from 25% to 50%—now covering not just base metals but many derivative products like appliances  .

🚗 3. UK Deal Brings Auto Tariff Relief

A new tariff deal with the UK reduces auto tariffs from 25% to 10%, under a quota of 100,000 cars annually  . However, this only applies to the UK; other nations remain subject to the full steel, aluminum, and electric vehicle charges.

🌏 4. U.S.–China Truce & Rare-Earth Agreement

A U.S.–China framework reached in June eased rare-earth export restrictions but kept a fixed 55% tariff on Chinese imports—an amalgamation of existing and punitive duties  .

⚠️ 5. Canada Talks Break Down

Negotiations between the U.S. and Canada collapsed over Canada’s digital-services tax. The U.S. now plans to set “new tariff rates” on Canadian goods within a week—risking broader disruption  .

🌐 Global Ripple Effects

⏳ Retaliation Preparations

• EU is readying 25% tariffs on U.S. whiskey and soybeans in case of continued U.S. levies post-July 9  .
• China, Canada, and other trade partners are similarly preparing countermeasures targeting strategic U.S. exports—like agriculture and energy  .

💸 Economic Concerns

The Bank for International Settlements warns that aggressive tariffs could fracture global supply chains, spike bond market volatility, and yield long-term productivity losses  . A Yale study projects 2025 tariffs could generate $2.3 trillion in nominal revenue from 2026–35—but these gains are offset by an estimated $360 b in economic drag  .

⚖️ Legal Check: Court Blocks “Liberation Day” Tariffs

In late May, the Court of International Trade struck down the IEEPA-based “Liberation Day” 10% tariffs—deeming them beyond presidential authority. However, steel, Section 301, and national security tariffs remain unaffected  .

🔍 What to Monitor in the Coming Weeks

1. July 9 Deadline – Will the tariff pause expire, leading to letters imposing new duties?
2. Congressional Oversight Legislation – The Trade Review Act (S.1272) could require Congressional approval for future tariffs, potentially limiting unilateral moves  .
3. Retaliatory Measures – Watch EU, Canadian, and Chinese responses—especially for threats targeting soybeans, whiskey, steel, energy, and digital services.
4. Supply Chain Shifts – Businesses may intensify relocation to Mexico or diversify sourcing to mitigate U.S. tariffs  .

🧭 Who Should Care—and Why

• Importers & Manufacturers using steel, aluminum, auto parts, or heavy machinery need rapid tariff recalibration.
• Agriculture & Commodity Sectors must prepare for retaliatory restrictions from trading partners.
• Multinationals dealing in China or the EU should revisit supply chain maps and tariff strategies.
• Financial Markets should brace for volatility in yields and currency shifts tied to policy changes.

✅ Bottom Line

The reassertion of tariffs—and the looming expiration of temporary pauses—signals renewed trade friction. While some relief deals (like with the UK and China) offer limited predictability, much of the global trading landscape faces uncertainty. Companies that proactively assess exposure, diversify sourcing, and engage with policy developments will be best positioned to navigate the evolving terrain.